Q2 2019 Investor Letter

Source: https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/1e70a30c-20a7-48b3-a1f6-696a7c517959

Release Text

Tesla Second Quarter 2019 Update
•Cash and cash equivalents of $5.0B; Operating cash flow less capex of $614M
•GAAP operating loss of $167M, GAAP net loss of $408M, including $117M of restructuring and other charges
•Auto gross margin at ~19% in spite of reductions in vehicle ASP and lower regulatory credit revenue
•On track to launch Gigafactory Shanghai by end of 2019 and Model Y by fall of 2020.In the second quarter of 2019, we achieved record deliveries of 95,356 vehicles and record production of 87,048 vehicles, surpassing our previous quarterly records of ~91,000 deliveries and ~86,600 units produced in Q4 of 2018. This is an important milestone as it represents rapid progress in managing global logistics and delivery operations at higher volumes.

As a result of this growth and operational improvements, we generated $614 million of free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex) in Q2. Combined with our public offering of equity and convertible bonds (net proceeds of $2.4 billion), we ended the quarter with $5.0 billion of cash and cash equivalents, the highest level in Tesla’s history. This level of liquidity puts us in a comfortable position as we prepare to launch Model 3 production in China and Model Y production in the US. As a result of our strong deliveries and continued progress on cost efficiencies, our GAAP net loss declined significantly compared to Q1.

Autopilot and Full Self-Driving Features:

As safety has always been a priority for us, Model 3 received the highest ever ratings in the Safety Assist category of Euro NCAP’s new and more stringent testing protocols. New active safety features built on our Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) hardware and software suite contributed to this achievement. Development of new features continued in Q2 as we launched Navigate on Autopilot in new regions including Europe and China. We are making progress on our next major update: Enhanced Summon, which is currently in our early access program. We are making progress towards stopping at stop signs and traffic lights. This feature is currently operating in “shadow mode” in the fleet, which compares our software algorithm to real-world driver behavior across tens of millions of instances around the world. Our new FSD computer, which is ~21x faster than our previous HW2.5 computer, has been in production since Q2.

Model 3:

In Q2, Model 3 deliveries reached an all-time record of 77,634. Not only was Model 3 once again the best-selling premium vehicle in the US, outselling all of its gas-powered equivalents combined, this product also gained traction in other markets. In Europe, Model 3 is approaching sales levels of established premium competitors. As we stated previously, more than 60% of Model 3 trade-ins are non-premium brands, indicating a larger total addressable market for this product than initially expected. Now that all current variants of Model 3 are available across North America, Europe and Asia, we are gaining insight into preferred customer trim mix.

During the quarter, a majority of orders continued to be for a long-range battery option and the Model 3 average selling price (ASP) was stable at approximately $50,000. At the same time, manufacturing costs continued to decline.

The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly record in May and then again in June. All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of all models per week by the end of 2019.

Model S/X:

Model S and Model X production continues to run on a single shift schedule, and we produced over 14,500 vehicles in Q2. Our deliveries increased sequentially to 17,722 as we continue to prioritize inventory reduction (working capital management). As a result, our total new car inventory levels have fallen to just 18 days of sales (including vehicles in transit, on ships and company owned vehicles), compared to the industry’s typical US inventory level of ~70 days of sales.

Gigafactory Shanghai

continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process. Just like in the US, the Model 3 base price of RMB 328,000 is consistent with its gas-powered competitors, even before gas savings and incentives. Given Chinese customers bought well over a half million mid-sized premium sedans last year, this market poses a strong long-term opportunity for Tesla. We are looking forward to starting production in China by the end of this year. Depending on the timing of the Gigafactory Shanghai ramp, we continue to target production of over 500,000 vehicles globally in the 12-month period ending June 30, 2020.

Model Y:

Preparations for Model Y production in Fremont began in Q2. Due to a significant overlap of components between Model 3 and Model Y, we are able to leverage existing manufacturing designs in the development of the Model Y production facilities. Additionally, we are making progress managing Model Y cost with only a minimal cost premium expected over Model 3. Due to the large market size for SUVs, as well as higher ASPs, we believe Model Y will be a more profitable product than the Model 3.

Infrastructure:

As our fleet continues to grow, our service and Supercharger capacity continues to expand. In Q2, we added 101 vehicles to our Mobile Service fleet and opened 25 new store and service locations. While our customer fleet size has doubled in the past 12 months, our service losses remained stable year-on-year and service wait times have improved considerably. Supercharger capacity has grown to roughly 1,600 charging locations worldwide. In addition to the number of charging locations, we are also increasing the rate of throughput of vehicles. We expect the average charging session at our powerful V3 Superchargers will drop to around 15 minutes, which will effectively double the overall throughput rate per stall compared to our V2 Superchargers, easily keeping pace with our fleet growth.

Energy:

Powerwall and Powerpack deployment grew by 81% in the second quarter to a record 415 MWh. Powerwalls are now installed at more than 50,000 sites. Additional cell supply combined with our new module line designed by Tesla Grohmann enabled a step change in energy storage production. Solar retrofit deployments declined sequentially to 29 MW. We are in the process of improving many aspects of this business to increase deployments.

OUTLOOK

This quarter, we are simplifying our approach to guidance. We are most focused on expanding our manufacturing footprint in new regions, launching new products and continuing to improve the customer experience, while generating and using cash sustainably.

Local production and improved utilization of existing factories is essential to be cost competitive in each region. We remain on track to launch local production of the Model 3 in China by the end of the year and Model Y in Fremont by fall of 2020. We are also accelerating our European Gigafactory efforts and are hoping to finalize a location choice in the coming quarters.

We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year.

Additionally, we expect positive quarterly free cash flow, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.

We continue to aim for positive GAAP net income in Q3 and the following quarters, although continuous volume growth, capacity expansion and cash generation will remain the main focus.

Our 2019 capex is expected to be about $1.5 to $2.0 billion, a reduction from prior guidance. We continue to find opportunities to improve capital efficiency and shift cash outflows to future periods. This estimate includes the development of our main projects, on the timelines referenced, and to expand our Supercharger and service networks.